Wisconsin

Graham Williams

— 1 min read

Wisconsin
Sauk County (polls close 21:00 ET / 02:00 GMT):

  • has emerged as a much-monitored bellwether for the state as a whole.
  • Non-college whites make up about 70% of the electorate, one of the highest shares of any county in the state Biden carried in 2020.
  • If Harris narrowly keeps Sauk in her column, it would be a sign Democrats’ relentless field organizing in the state has paid off.

Ozaukee County (polls close 21:00 ET / 02:00 GMT):
-community has the highest share of college-educated white voters anyplace outside of the Democratic vote engine of Dane County (Madison)

  • moving away from its GOP moorings fast: in 2020, it voted for Trump by just 12 points after voting for him by 19 points in 2016 and for Romney by a whopping 30 points in 2012.
  • Harris likely needs to narrow Trump’s margin here further to cancel out pro-Trump trends in more rural parts of the Badger State.

BlondeMoney:
Milwaukee (SAFE DEM)

  • Harris needs voters to turn out in Wisconsin's most populous country.
  • Milwaukee is a diverse county, and it will test Harris' ability to connect with key demographics.
  • Biden increased the Democrats' margin here in 2020 by 3 pts, and Trump will look to minimise that

Waukesha (SAFE REP)

  • The Republican vote here has slowly dropped off here in the last few presidential elections.
  • Trump will take the county easily, but it will serve as good indicator for Republican turnout.

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