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But we can get more funky and start to look at individual counties in the swing states – to give us some colour on what way they may be swinging. Axios note this morning:

• In 2016, more than 200 counties that had voted for former President Obama in 2012 turned red for Trump
• In 2020, less than half that number switched from Trump to Biden, but it was enough to flip Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
• Those states hang in the balance once again, along with Nevada and North Carolina
• polls offer no clarity as to which candidate will carry those states, but the results on election night will — even if the states remain too close to call — if you know where to look.

There is good work on this from Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report and our former colleague Helen Thomas at BlondeMoney has highlighted some of these as well this morning
Just to run through those individual countries that may give us a handle on things before the results are called.

Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman notes:

• In the turbulent 2016 and 2020 elections, the White House effectively hinged on fewer than 78,000 votes across the three closest states.
• Eight years ago, Donald Trump — despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 points — prevailed by a cumulative raw vote margin of 77,744 votes across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
• Four years ago, Joe Biden — despite winning the popular vote by 4.5 points — defeated Trump by a cumulative raw vote margin of 42,918 votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
• first indications of what’s happening on Election Night will come from county-by-county results in the seven battleground states.