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Remember each state is made up of multiple counties (represented by the House Seats) and watching as these come in can give a flavour of how things may progress.

• Networks will take this into account and if (for example) the 13% of votes yet to be counted in the above graphic – were focused on urban areas with strong Democrat support – they may feel happier calling the result

Changes to the way mail in voting is counted have been implemented in various states as well and these will have an impact on how the vote count progresses through the night .

As we noted in our preview, networks unlikely to be calling swing state early (we were still waiting results from all seven swing states at 05:30 GMT in 2020 and indeed it took four days (nov7th) before enough votes had been counted in Pennsylvania for the networks to project Joe Biden as the eventual winner. Therefore we are looking at the margin of victory in some of the closer states – that may not be so close that they prevent the networks callilng them as the polls close.

In order to get an early signal we would look at the following (NB polling updated as of 05Nov)

New Hampshire – Leans Harris by 3.0%
Virginia – Leans Harris by 6.8%
Ohio - Leans Trump by 8.4%
Maine Second District - Leans Trump by 6.2%
Florida - Leans Trump by 6.1%
Maine (state vote) - Leans Harris by 8.6%

We expect all of these to announce between 00:00 GMT and 01:00 GMT and again look for the margin of victory