Pennsylvania

Graham Williams

— 2 min read

Pennsylvania

Cook Political Report:
Bucks County (polls close 20:00 ET / 01:00 GMT):

  • Trump chose Bucks County for his appearance at a McDonalds drive through and it represents his best chance to make progress in the Philly suburbs
  • non-college-educated whites make up about 50% of the electorate — much higher than any other Philly collar county
  • If Trump carries Bucks for the first time in his three runs, it suggests that Harris was likely unable to match Biden’ showing among white working-class voters.
  • However, like other large counties in the state, it could take at least several days before the full results are known.

Cumberland County (polls close 20:00 ET / 01:00 GMT):

  • Cumberland County, is a fast-growing, increasingly white-collar area - growing more racially diverse as it becomes a tech and logistics hub.
  • In 2020, it voted for Trump by 11 points, down from his 18 point margin in 2016.
  • In 2022, Democrat Josh Shapiro carried it by 8 points in the governor’s race
  • If Harris cuts Trump’s Cumberland margin to mid-single digits, it could crucially help offset setbacks elsewhere in the state.

Northampton County (polls close 20:00 ET / 01:00 GMT):

  • Erie County may be Pennsylvania’s biggest bellwether, but only Northampton County in the Lehigh Valley has voted for the state’s winner in every election since 1972
  • Northampton remains more blue-collar and is home to a thriving Hispanic community that’s now 30% of Bethlehem’s population.
  • If Trump fails to make progress in the region, it could be a sign his last-minute Madison Square Garden rally backfired with some of Bethlehem and Allentown’s Puerto Rican voters.

BlondeMoney:
Like CPR – BM are highlighting both Bucks County and Cumberland Country saying:

Bucks County (SAFE DEM)
This is one of the key suburban counties that helped Biden win Pennsylvania in 2020.

  • Trump didn't lose voters here, but more people turned up to vote for Biden.
  • Significantly, in 2020 the votes for third parties here dropped from 4% to 1%, and may have aided Biden.
  • If some voters migrate to a third option like they did in 2016, that would probably hurt Harris' numbers more than Trump's.

Cumberland County (SAFE REP)

  • In 2020, Trump's margin of victory here decreased by -8 pts.
  • Biden's performance here was the best for a Democrat since 1964.
  • Trump needs to recover margins like this one if he is going to flip Pennsylvania again.

Erie County (SWING / BELLWEATHER)

  • A key bellwether county that Biden won back from Trump in 2020 with a 1% pt margin.
  • If Trump can win back Erie, it would be significant for his statewide campaign.

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