North Carolina:

Graham Williams

— 1 min read

North Carolina:
Cook Political Report:
Cabarrus County (polls close 19:30 ET / 00:30 GMT)

  • County has undergone a rapid demographic metamorphosis in the past decade: in 2010, it was 72% white. As of 2022, it was just 59% white and 21% Black, 12% Hispanic and 6% Asian.
  • It voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016, but just 9 points in 2020.
  • Harris absolutely needs to make big gains in order to win North Carolina
  • A Trump margin of five points or less here would be a sign Harris has a decent chance to break through.

Nash County (polls close 19:30 ET / 00:30 GMT)

  • Rural northeastern North Carolina has been losing Black residents and voters, and in 2022 Budd carried the county by 7 points (in the Seante election) after Biden carried it by just 0.2 points in 2020
  • County has been decided by less than 1,000 votes in every presidential race since 2004
  • Harris can’t afford to fall short here by much, and Democratic Don Davis is locked in a Toss Up race for the North Caroline First Congressional District in the House election here as well.

BlondeMoney:
Blonde Money also Flag Cabarrus Country
Cabarrus (SAFE REPUBLICAN):

  • Trump saw his vote share in the country drop from 57.69% in 2016 to 53.94% in 2020
  • Recovering some of those lost votes would help Trump ensure that North Carolina remains a red state.

Wake (SAFE DEM):

  • Wake has one of the fastest growing populations in the US. Obama won in 2012 by 11 pts, Clinton won in 2016 by 20 pts, and Biden won in 2020 by 26 pts.
  • Harris will look to drive that winning margin up even further, to increase her campaign's statewide chances.

Henderson (SAFE REPUBLICAN):

  • One of several solid Trump counties in North Carolina which were badly hit by Hurricane Helene just a month ago.
  • North Carolina's State Board of Elections has put several measures in place to ensure voters get to the polls; keeping an eye on Henderson will indicate if those measures have been effective.

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