Michigan

Graham Williams

— 1 min read

Michigan
Cook Political Report:
Muskegon County (polls close 20:00 ET / 01:00 GMT):

  • increasingly cosmopolitan Grand Rapids metro area has driven West Michigan’s Democratic vote growth in recent years
  • However, this blue-collar manufacturing hub along Lake Michigan has seen Democrats’ margins decline
  • About 63% of the county’s electorate are white non-college graduates, and about 12% are Black
  • A narrow Harris win would be a sign of a good performance with working-class white women in particular.

Saginaw County (polls close 20:00 ET / 01:00 GMT):

  • part Rust Belt urban and part small-town/rural- it’s also a great bellwether
  • In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry it since 1984 (by 1.2 points) and Biden managed to carry it by a scant 0.3 points in 2020
  • Labor-heavy region has migrated towards Trump’s politics
  • If Trump flips it back to his column by a clearer margin it would be a sign polls likely underestimated him with non-college whites.

BlondeMoney:
BM also Highlight Saginaw County (SWING / BELLWEATHER):

  • Since 2008, the presidential candidate who has won here has gone on to win the state.
  • The margin of victory last time was only 303 votes.
  • Well worth keeping an eye on.

Wayne County (SAFE DEM):

  • If Trump can eat into the margin of victory in Michigan's most populous county, that would increase his chances statewide.
  • It would also suggest wider problems for the Harris campaign.
  • Alongside a 38% black population, Wayne is also home to at least 70,000 Muslims, and may indicate how much the war in Gaza has hurt Harris

Kent County (SWING / BELLWEATHER):

  • Won by Trump in 2016, and then Biden in 2020.
  • While Trump lost in 2020, the Republican Senate candidate still won.
  • There are dynamic voters here, with a history of choosing candidate over party.

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